Energy market in the context of long-term forecasts

The paper presents simulations of long-term forecasts concepts of the energy market in Poland. The study was based on the quotations conducted on the Polish Power Exchange. The methodology of analysis was based on a risk analysis of securities and more specifically on the the Value at Risk. On the basis of that measure there were conducted forecasts with a longer time horizon both for the quotations of the major indexes of the above exchange as well as the stock price changes which take place every day.

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